JAMES ROGERS ON PATIENCE AND FADING HYSTERIA
The Market Wizards series is a collection of books written by Jack Schwager that captures the philosophies, traits, experiences, and advice of great traders, seeking to draw out lessons that could help all traders from novices to professionals. The following is an excerpt from Jack about Jim Rogers. A new never before seen video recalling this interview will be hosted to FundSeeder tomorrow. (Since the original publication of this post the Jim Rogers video has been hosted here)
In Market Wizards, the first book of the series, Schwager interviewed James B. Rogers, a phenomenally successful trader, although he would insist on calling himself an “investor,” as opposed to “trader” because of the long-term nature of his market positions. In 1973, he partnered with George Soros to start the Quantum Fund, one of the most successful hedge funds of all time. Rogers left Quantum in 1980 because the firm’s success had led to expansion and with it unwanted management responsibilities. Rogers just wanted to focus on market research and investment, so he “retired” to mange his own money.
Rogers is particularly skilled in seeing the big picture and anticipating major long-term trends. When I interviewed him in 1988, gold had been declining for eight years, but Rogers seemed certain the bear market would carry on for another decade.
“General always fight the last war,” he said. “Portfolio managers always invest in the last bull market. The idea that gold has always been a great store of value is absurd. There have been times in history when gold has lost purchasing power—sometimes for decades.”
Rogers was absolute right as gold continued to slide for anther eleven years. Another market he was particularly opinionated about was the Japanese stock market. At the time, Japanese equities were in the midst of an explosive bull market. Yet, Rogers was convinced there would be a tremendous move in the opposite direction.
“I guarantee that the Japanese stock market is going to have a major collapse—possibly within the next year or two…[Their stocks] are going to go down 80 to 90 percent.”
This forecast seemed preposterous, yet it was absolutely correct. A little over a year after our conversation the Japanese stock market peaked, beginning a slide that would see the Nikkei index lose about 80% of its value over the next 14 years.
The following excerpts from Market Wizards focus on Rogers’s investing philosophy, advice to investors and traders, and his rather cynical view of chart analysis.
It sounds like you have a great deal of conviction when you put on a trade.
Yes, I usually do; otherwise, I don’t bother doing it. One of the best rules anybody can learn about investing is to do nothing, absolutely nothing, unless there is something to do. Most people—not that I’m better than most people—always have to be playing; they always have to be doing something. They make a big play and say, “Boy, am I smart, I just tripled my money.” Then they rush out and have to do something else with that money. They can’t just sit there and wait for something new to develop.
Do you always wait for a situation to line up in your favor? Don’t you ever say, “I think this market is probably going to go up, so I’ll give it a shot”?
What you just described is a very fast way to the poorhouse. I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over mere and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime. Even people who lose money in the market say, “I just lost my money, now I have to do something to make it back.” No, you don’t. You should sit there until you find something.
Trade as little as possible.
That is why I don’t think of myself as a trader. I think of myself as someone who waits for something to come along. I wait for a situation that is like the proverbial “shooting fish in a barrel.”
What is the biggest public fallacy regarding market behavior?
That the market is always right. The market is nearly always wrong. I can assure you of that.
What else?
Never, ever, follow conventional wisdom in the market. You have to learn to go counter to the markets. You have to learn how to think for yourself; to be able to see that the emperor has no clothes. Most people can’t do it. Most people want to follow a trend. “The trend is your friend.” Maybe that is valid for a few minutes in Chicago, but for the most part, following what everyone else is doing is rarely a way to get rich. You may make money that way for a while, but keeping it is very hard.
But actually, your whole style of trading involves staying with a trend for years. So isn’t what you are saying contradictory?
That kind of trend—a trend that is economically justified—is different. You have to see the supply/demand balance change early, buy early, and only buy markets that are going to go on for years. By “trend following,” I meant buying a market just because it goes up and selling it just because it goes down.
“What trading rules do you live by?
Look for hysteria to see if you shouldn’t go the opposite way, but don’t go the opposite way until you have fully examined the situation. Also, remember that the world is always changing. Be aware of change. Buy change. You should be willing to buy or sell anything. So many people say, “I could never buy that kind of stock,” “I could never buy utilities,” “I could never play commodities.” You should be flexible and alert to investing in anything.
If you were counseling the average investor, what would you tell him?
Don’t do anything until you know what you are doing. If you make 50 percent two years in a row and then lose 50 percent in the third year, you would actually be worse off than if you just put your money in a money market fund. Wait for something to come along that you know is right. Then take your profit, put it back in the money market fund, and just wait again. You will come out way ahead of everybody else.
Are you ever wrong on a major position play? That is, are one of your almost sure shots ever wrong, or are they so well selected that they just invariably go?
I don’t want to make it sound like I don’t know how to lose money—because I know how to lose money better than most people—but there has not been a major mistake in a long time. But you have to remember that I don’t trade that often. It is not as though I’m making three decisions a month. I may make three decisions a year, or five decisions a year, and I’ll stay with them.
How often do you make a trade?
Well, there is a difference between making a trade and deciding to buy bonds in 1981. I’ve owned bonds since 1981, but I sell around the position. I make trades, but basically I own them. I went short the dollar at the end of 1984. Now, I have made a fair amount of trades in currencies since the end of 1984, but it is basically one trade with a lot of trades around it.
Very few investors or traders are as successful as you have been over time. What makes you different?
I don’t play. I just don’t play.
I can understand that. But still, very few people can analyze the same fundamentals you are looking at and so consistently be correct in assessing all the variables.
Just don’t do anything until you know you’ve got it right. As an example, until you see American agriculture hit a low, then no matter what happens in the world—unless the world is going to stop eating—you can’t go wrong. American agriculture is now so competitive, and so many marginal farmers have been washed out, that it has to go up. You just watch American agriculture deteriorate, deteriorate, deteriorate, and then you buy. You may buy early or late. In my case, usually a little bit early. But, so what? The worst that happens is you bought it too early. Who cares?
Is there anything else besides the fact that you are very selective that sets you apart?
I have no boundaries. I am totally flexible. I am open to everything, and I pursue everything. I have no more compunction about speculating in Singapore dollars or shorting Malaysian palm oil than I do about buying General Motors.
What happens when you have one scenario for currencies, one for the stock market, one for the bond market, and not everything meshes?
Then I won’t do anything. It happens all the time. I don’t do anything until all the pieces fit.
What is your opinion about chart reading?
I haven’t met a rich technician. Excluding, of course, technicians who sell their technical services and make a lot of money.
Do you use charts yourself?
Yes, I look at them every week. I use them for knowledge, to see what is going on. I learn a lot about what is going on in the world by looking at charts.
But you don’t ever look at charts and say, “I’ve seen this type of pattern before and it usually means the market is topping.”
I look at charts to see what has happened.
Not what will happen?
What has happened. If you don’t know what has happened, you’ll never know what is going to happen. The charts say to me that there is a runaway bull market. They give me facts, but that’s it. I don’t say—what is that term you used earlier, reversal?—there is a reversal here. I don’t even know what a reversal is.
A reversal simply is—
Don’t tell me. It might mess up my mind. I don’t know about those things, and I don’t want to know.
Any last words?
Good investing is really just common sense. But it is astonishing how few people have common sense—how many people can look at the exact same scenario, the exact same facts and not see what is going to happen. Ninety percent of them will focus on the same thing, but the good investor—or trader, to use your term—will see something else. The ability to get away from conventional wisdom is not very common.
The Undiscovered Market Wizards Search
Jack Schwager is one of the cofounders of FundSeeder (fundseeder.com) a new online technology company that provides traders with a free graphic and analytics platform, as well as offering traders worldwide the opportunity to get discovered. FundSeeder’s technology allows traders to verify their track records, benefit from performance analytics and risk management tools, access an emerging manager support structure, find potential trader employment opportunities and, if regulated, connect with investors.
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