We’re back! We hope everyone had a great holiday season and wonderful New Year! Everyone at FundSeeder is excited and looking forward to a great 2017. Now that people are properly settled back in from the holiday season it’s time for this week’s Market Wizard Remembered – Ed Seykota.
If you are not familiar with the series please check out this summary post from a couple weeks ago. The Market Wizards series is a collection of books written by FundSeeder Co-founder and CRO Jack Schwager that captures the philosophies, traits, experiences, and advice of great traders, seeking to draw out lessons that could help all traders from novices to professionals.
SEYKOTA ON THE LINK BETWEEN PSYCHOLOGY AND TRADING
In Market Wizards, the first book of the series, Schwager interviewed Ed Seykota, an MIT graduate in electrical engineering who developed the first commercial computerized trading systems for managing clients’ money in the futures markets. Seykota became frustrated with his firm’s management interference in trading and second-guessing the signals of his system, which had deleterious effects on performance. He left to trade his own account and those of a few select clients, achieving remarkable returns. The following excerpts from Market Wizards focus on the role of psychology in trading.
What are the elements of good trading?
The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance.
Very few traders have enjoyed the spectacular success you have. What makes you different?
I feel my success comes from my love of the markets. I am not a casual trader. It is my life. I have a passion for trading. It is not merely a hobby or even a career choice for me. There is no question that this is what I am supposed to do with my life.
What are the trading rules you live by?
- Cut losses.
- Ride winners.
- Keep bets small.
- Follow the rules without question.
- Know when to break the rules.
Your last two rules are cute because they are contradictory. Seriously now, which do you believe: Follow the rules, or know when to break the rules?
I believe both. Mostly I follow the rules. As I keep studying the markets, I sometimes find a new rule that breaks and then replaces a previous rule. Sometimes I get to a personal breakpoint. When that happens, I just get out of the markets altogether and take a vacation until I feel that I am ready to follow the rules again. Perhaps some day, I will have a more explicit rule for breaking rules.
I don’t think traders can follow rules for very long unless they reflect their own trading style. Eventually, a breaking point is reached and the trader has to quit or change, or find a new set of rules he can follow. This seems to be part of the process of evolution and growth of a trader.
How important is gut feel?
Gut feel is important. If ignored, it may come out in subtle ways by coloring your logic. It can be dealt with through meditation and reflection to determine what’s behind it. If it persists, then it might be a valuable subconscious analysis of some subtle information. Otherwise, it might be a dangerous sublimation of an inner desire for excitement and! not reflect market conditions. Be sensitive to the subtle differences between “intuition” and “into wishing.”
What effect has trading had on your personal life?
My personal life is integrated with my trading life.
Is the joy of winning as intense as the pain of losing?
The joy of winning and the pain of losing are right up there with the pain of winning and the joy of losing. Also to consider are the joy and pain of not participating. The relative strengths of these feelings tend to increase with the distance of the trader from his commitment to being a trader.
When you made your first few million, did you lock some of it away to avoid the Jesse Livermore experience? [Livermore was a famous speculator of the early twentieth century who made and lost several fortunes.]
I feel the Livermore experience was a function of his psychology and had little to do with the location of his assets. In fact, I remember reading that Jesse Livermore used to lock some of his winnings away and then find a key when he needed to get at them. Therefore, locking up winnings would be necessary to emulate his experience, not to avoid it. Furthermore, you would probably also need to overtrade and have wipeouts, while you simultaneously fired up your emotions with the burning desire to “win it right back.” Acting out this drama could be exciting. However, it also seems terribly expensive. One alternative is to keep bets small and then to systematically keep reducing risk during equity drawdowns. That way you approach your safe money asymptotically and have a gentle financial and emotional touchdown.
I notice there is no quote machine on your desk.
Having a quote machine is like having a slot machine on your desk— you end up feeding it all day long. I get my price data after the close each day.
Why do so many traders fail in the marketplace?
For the same reason that most baby turtles fail to reach maturity: Many are called and few are chosen. Society works by the attraction of the many. As they are culled out, the good ones are left, and the others are released to go try something else until they find their calling. The same is true for other fields of pursuit.
What can a losing trader do to transform himself into a winning trader?
A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. That’ s the kind of thing winning traders do.
How would you rate the relative importance between psychology and market analysis to successful trading?
Psychology motivates the quality of analysis and puts it to use. Psychology is the driver and analysis is the road map.
You have focused a lot on the field of psychology. Can you tell by talking to a person whether that person would probably be a winning or losing trader?
Yes, the winning traders have usually been winning at whatever field they are in for years.
What traits do you look for to identify the winning trader personality?
- Не/she loves to trade; and 2. Не/she loves to win.
Don’t all traders want to win?
Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.
I know one trader who seems to get in near the start of every substantial bull move and works his $10 thousand up to about a quarter of a million in a couple of months. Then he changes his personality and loses it all back again. This process repeats like clockwork. Once I traded with him, but got out when his personality changed. I doubled my money, while he wiped out as usual. I told him what I was doing, and even paid him a management fee. He just couldn’t help himself. I don’t think he can do it any differently. He wouldn’t want to. He gets a lot of excitement, he gets to be a martyr, he gets sympathy from his friends, and he gets to be the center of attention. Also, possibly, he may be more comfortable relating to people if he is on their financial plane. On some level, I think he is really getting what he wants.
I think that if people look deeply enough into their trading patterns, they find that, on balance, including all their goals, they are really getting what they want, even though they may not understand it or want to admit it.
A doctor friend of mine tells a story about a cancer patient who used her condition to demand attention and, in general, to dominate others around her. As an experiment prearranged with her family, the doctor told her a shot was available which would cure her. She constantly found excuses to avoid appearing for the shot and eventually avoided it entirely. Perhaps her political position was more important than her life. People’s trading performance probably reflects their priorities more than they would like to admit.
I think that some of the most flamboyant and interesting traders are playing for more than profits alone; they are probably also playing for excitement. One of the best ways to increase profits is to do goal setting and visualizations in order to align the conscious and subconscious with making profits. I have worked with a number of traders in order to examine their priorities and align their goals. I use a combination of hypnosis, breathing, pacing, visualization, gestalt, massage, and so forth. The traders usually either (1) get much more successful, or (2) realize they didn’t really want to be traders in the first place.
Surely, some people lose because they lack the skill, even though they really want to win.
It is a happy circumstance that when nature gives us true burning desires, she also gives us the means to satisfy them. Those who want to win and lack skill can get someone with skill to help them.
I sometimes have dreams related to the impending direction of a market. Although these dreams tend to be very infrequent, uncannily they often prove right. Have you had any similar experiences?
I know several people who claim to have market insights during dreams. I think one of the functions of dreams is to reconcile information and feelings which the conscious mind finds intractable. For instance, I once told a lot of my friends that I expected silver to keep on going up. When it went down instead, I ignored the signs and tried to tell myself it was just a temporary correction. I stood to lose face and money. I couldn’t afford to be wrong. Around that time, I had dreams of being in a big, shiny, silver aircraft that stalled out and started going down toward an inevitable crash. I eventually dumped my silver position, even went short, and the dreams stopped.
How do you judge success?
I don’t judge success. I celebrate it. I think success has to do with finding and following one’s calling regardless of financial gain.
Are You the Next Market Wizard?
As the Chief Research officer of FundSeeder, Schwager plans to select traders discovered via FundSeeder as interview subjects for his next Market Wizards book, tentatively titled Undiscovered Market Wizards. If you would like an opportunity to be featured in this book or to be selected to manage investor capital, or if would just like to enjoy a great trading analytics platform free of charge, click on the link below to sign up for FundSeeder today.